Since September, the global economy has entered a troubled: subtle changes in regional economic comparison, Japan unexpectedly cut interest rates again, the Fed also hinted about to restart the second round of quantitative easing, the dollar depreciated sharply against major currencies, gold, oil and other bulk commodity prices rise, the global stock market bottomed out, the first time in 6 years the Japanese government to conduct foreign exchange intervention, Brazil, Britain and Switzerland are also open economies showing willingness to intervene in exchange rate movements, the Wholesale worm gear reducer nmrv 050 RMB exchange rate issue will again become the focus of Sino-US dispute, the global market "currency war" atmosphere is becoming strong, the economy has become more rampant financial protectionism, although the "Basel Ⅲ" was adopted unanimously, but the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank fall failed to resolve the current annual global effective exchange rate of the dispute to reach a consensus.I will combine this new event, empirical analysis of economic data and history, sort out the current global economic and financial operation of the internal logic, and as a judge the global economy and international financial markets, an important basis for future trends.Drop kinetic energy recovery, the recovery increased differencesSince September, the global economic recovery momentum further show signs of decline, the United States, Europe, Japan and some emerging market economies, most of the few economic data, "than-expected" performance, the market for the third quarter and second half of the major economies and global economic growth is expected to be reduced to varying degrees.

According to IMF in early October "Global Economic Prospects" published in the latest data: the global economy in 2010 is expected to achieve annual growth of 4.8%, given the global economic growth rate of the first half of 5.25% in the second half of the level of global economic growth will be significantly higher than in the first half down. It is worth emphasizing that, in early October in the latest report, IMF although the annual global economic growth rate in 2010 increased by 0.2%, but the growth rate of the first half was raised by 0.5% over the same period, the IMF has actually passed the second half of the global economic recovery is slowing down the information.I believe that the kinetic energy of the second half of the global economic recovery has five reasons for the decline:First, a series of support-than-expected global economic recovery in the first half of the short-term positive factors are significantly reduced, pre-stimulatory effects of expansionary policy shift from the low peak, and then gradually reduce the intensity Inventory;Second, fiscal consolidation plans to the inhibitory effect of economic growth began to appear and gradually increased in the short to medium term, according to the latest IMF study, for every 1% reduction in the proportion of GDP deficit, consumption and investment demand will be accumulated in two years 1% decline in the unemployment rate may be increased by about a third of a percentage point;

Third, the global economic recovery, employment creation capacity significantly lower than before the crisis, thus limiting the recovery of domestic demand strength, according to the author's estimates, in 2010 the overall unemployment rate in the developed economies, with growth in the ratio will rise 3.06,2011 3.76, were significantly higher than that since 1980 the normal level of around 2;Fourth, uncertainty increased the level of investment around the globe led to slow recovery, business investment will flow into the power of cash shortage, residents have a corresponding reduction in fixed investment and the purchase of durable goods, as of the second quarter, business fixed investment, inventory investment and consumer durables expenditure and the proportion in the GDP, only 20%, well below the historical average of 24.8%;Fifth, the continuing global financial regulatory reform to promote financial stability in the increase, while costs will inevitably lead to growth, according to Bank for International Settlements study of 17 economies, common equity capital ratio increased by 1 percentage point each, will the level of the next few years led to a decrease of approximately 0.2% of GDP.It is noteworthy that, in the global economic recovery momentum is declining, the recovery is also further increase the difference: on the one hand, regional differences and to further increase the more complex the market leader in the emerging context of developed markets, different market further exacerbated the internal differentiation. On the other hand, the cycle differences have increased, most regulated economies in 2010, while annual growth forecast, IMF cut only the United States, Canada and Russia and a few other major economies, growth projections, which U.S. economic growth forecast for the biggest cuts.